Phuket low season: what happens to rental rates and occupancy from May to October

130,000 baht in January. Multiply by twelve and you get 1.56 million baht a year. I see this calculation more often than any other, and it is wrong by more than double.

I am writing in early October. A good moment to look back at the six quiet months and show what they actually do to rental income.

In the article on gross and net yield I went through every deduction between the brochure figure and your bank account. Here I take one of them, the low season, and walk through it month by month.

How the year works on the island

The high season runs from November to April. Dry, sunny, calm sea, plenty of tourists. The low season runs from May to October: rain, wind, some beaches closed for swimming, a noticeably thinner flow of guests. The two seasons split the year almost evenly, 181 and 184 days, so half of your model lives on a different rate. Rentals drop deepest in the summer months, and the rain peaks towards autumn.

If you are used to the Mediterranean, the calendar runs the other way: Phuket's quietest months are Europe's beach months. Do not carry another market's calendar over to Phuket.

Here is what the long-term climate normals for Phuket show.

WMO normals 1991-2020, Phuket station, Thai Meteorological Department data.

The most water falls in September. The most rainy days are in October. In February it rains about twice a month.

People often ask me whether it makes sense to come in September. It does, if you are ready for rain. The sea is rough, and on some beaches you cannot swim. For a buyer it is even useful: you see the location on its worst days, and you see who stays once the tourists have gone.

What happens to the rate

I will use a decent one-bedroom apartment inside a resort complex by the sea. Rates as of September 2026:

• December and January: 120,000-150,000 baht a month
• the rest of the high season: about 90,000-95,000 baht
• low season: 45,000-50,000 baht

From peak to trough, roughly threefold.

Hotels show the same picture. C9 Hotelworks looked at ten years of pre-pandemic hotel data: in peak periods the average rate on Phuket was about 200% higher, and the lowest rates often held for up to six months between May and October. A different segment of the market, but the year is built the same way.

What happens to occupancy

Occupancy falls along with the price.

In winter the apartment is let on about 80% of days. In summer realistic occupancy is about 50%, and that is with good management and a sensible price.

So in summer the rate is roughly a third of the peak, and there are fewer nights with guests: about 50% instead of 80%. The two drops multiply, which is why the annual figure ends up so far from the January one.

Hotels move in the same direction. According to Knight Frank, in the first half of 2025 Phuket hotel occupancy peaked in January at 91.8% and bottomed out in June at 66.9%. These are hotel figures, and they should not go into a condo calculation. They only confirm how the year is shaped.

Counting the year month by month

The sequence is simple. Take a separate rate for each season. Multiply each by the real occupancy of its period. Add them up and you have gross rent for the year. Then subtract the management company's share, common area fees, utilities and tax.

Below is an illustration on the typical numbers from the sections above, not an offer on a specific unit. I count both ends of the range.

The honest gross figure comes out at about 615,000-694,000 baht a year, against 1.56 million baht in the naive version. And that is before the management company, which in my calculations takes about 40%.

On the channel I gave a figure of about 780,000 baht a year for this kind of apartment. That number assumes about 80% occupancy all year round. Here summer is taken at 50%, so the result is lower. For your budget, use the lower one.

Look at the May-October row. Six months, half the year, bring in 135,000-150,000 baht. That is about a fifth of the year's gross rent. Per month that is 22,500-25,000 baht of gross rent for each summer month, before any deductions.

Now put the payment next to it. In one example on my channel, a 54 m² one-bedroom priced at 9.3 million baht still had an instalment plan after the keys, at 92,500 baht a month. In July the payment is the same 92,500 baht. Instalments and running costs do not depend on the season.

That is why I always ask people to look at the average for the year, not the peak. It is duller, but you can rely on it. If you built your budget on winter rates, summer will catch you out.

Why location decides the summer

The numbers above apply to an apartment inside a resort complex, rented mostly by tourists. In summer it drops deep, because that audience leaves.

A separate case: a resort condo away from the sea, twenty minutes from the beach, lives on the tourist season from November to April. The rest of the year occupancy collapses. For coffee, groceries or dinner the guest has to get into a car or onto a scooter every time, and in the rain that stops being romantic very quickly.

A town with a beach within walking distance works differently. Three different audiences rent there:

• tourists book by the night in the high season
• expats and remote workers rent for months
• families with children in international schools take an apartment for the school year

Their seasons do not coincide. That is why, by my estimate, occupancy in such locations holds at around 85% across the year, and the summer dip is shallow. Examples: Bang Tao, Kamala, Surin, where the beach, restaurants, shops and schools sit side by side.

So when two owners on the same island tell you completely different stories about the summer, the difference is usually who lives around them.

What an owner can do with May to October

You cannot cancel the low season, but you can soften it.

The first option is a long-term let for the summer. Some owners switch the apartment to a single tenant from May to October. The rate is below peak, but there are no empty gaps between guests. Calculate it as a separate scenario and compare.

The second is a management company that knows how to work the off season. It should have its own booking channels and a track record of filling units between seasons. The difference between a good operator and a weak one shows most clearly in summer. Ask them for summer occupancy on comparable units, month by month.

And there is location, which you choose before you buy. It is the only lever that cannot be moved after the keys. If you are choosing now, choose a place where people live all year round.

One thing I tell everyone. Budget the summer months as months when you may top up the instalment from your own pocket. If you do not have to, all the better.

When the season comes back

Formally, in November. In practice, on 2 October I already wrote on the channel that the season had started: the waves had dropped, and the day before the sea was excellent. The rain thins out, and in December and January rates go back towards the top of the range.

Trouble starts when someone sells you a handsome number without explaining what it is made of.

Count on the bottom of the range. If it comes in higher, that is a pleasant surprise.

If you want to run this for your own numbers, the yield calculator on the home page takes your budget, the stage of the project and your horizon, and shows the range from the brochure figure down to net, with every rate labelled as an assumption. And if you want it done for a specific unit and your budget, with seasonal rates, real occupancy and the instalment schedule in one table, write to me. I will count it month by month, on the bottom of the range.